Climate Change

Supermarkets and Climate change – Drivers for Change
The implications of climate change are a key factor to our planet survival and therefore a major driver for change within our industry. Globally, governments and businesses have acknowledged there is a business case for change and that this issue must be addressed. Welford & Gouldson have identified key pressures drivers that influence change as:
Cost Savings – Low carbon technologies, Competitive advantage
Government Influences – legislation, Taxes
Stakeholder influences – customers, suppliers, employees, investors, communities, pressure groups, media
Climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report leaves no doubt that human activity is the main cause of greenhouse gases and climate change. These are impacting earth??™s ecological infrastructures such as, collapsing fisheries falling water tables, shrinking forests etc. Ever more frequently we see news reports of earthquake tsunamis, drought, flooding and other phenomena such as hurricanes and forest fires, all of which is attributed to an extent to climate change. If we fail to mitigate climate change before the tipping point is reached, the long term effects and consequences could be catastrophic. Legislation and green taxes have been introduced to drive a step change towards low carbon economy. These include Carbon Reduction Commitments that places a cap on emissions for large, non-energy intensive organisations. EU Emissions Trading Schemes, Building regulations and the Climate Change Levy.
Climate change occurs when the earth??™s surface temperature changes over time and affects rainfall and wind patterns. The Earth??™s surface has warmed by about 0.754?°C on average since around 1900 and by around 0.4?°C since the 1970s. The degree of change in global climate can be seen particularly over the last 50 years. Today climate change is often referred as global warming or anthropogenic global warming (AGW). Global warming is caused by an excess of heat-trapping gases emissions, carbon dioxide (Co2), sulphur hexafluoride, methane and nitrous oxides along with power full industrial gases such as Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydro-chlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs). These gases are mainly man made and are known as Greenhouse gases, which prevent the sun??™s energy from radiating back into space after it has reached the surface of the earth.
Supermarkets
In many cases, Supermarkets contribute directly or indirectly to global warming. Within the supermarket sector, there are three specific areas that require immediate attention:

Refrigeration
Food miles
Energy

Refrigeration
HFCs are regulated under an international climate framework known as The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is covered by the Kyoto and Montreal Protocols. Targets have been agreed by developed member states countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% by 2012, 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. These commitments are against a 1990 baseline. Despite this, HFC emissions have risen by 15% a year. The current generation of HCFC??™s known as F gases are currently the refrigerants of choice and are many times more powerful than previous generations of HFC??™s which is having an overwhelming impact on the climate.
Food Miles
In 2002 a defra survey estimated that 30 billion kilometres of food miles had been completed, split between cars, HGVs and LGVs, 82% of this was in the UK (see figure E1). The survey also highlighted HGVs as accounting for 25% of all HGV vehicle kilometres in the UK. This equated to 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, which was 1.8% of the total annual UK Co2 emissions. Globalization of the food market has resulted in food transported by air becoming the fastest growing mode of food transport and account for 11% of food transport Co2 emissions.

Energy
Supermarkets are large consumers of electricity and subsequently produce CO2 emissions. 40% of this electricity is consumed by refrigeration equipment. Other areas of consumption are air conditioning systems and poor energy efficiency buildings amongst others.

WORKSHEET
Climate Change
The start of the of this section of the news letter describes implications and divers that influence for change Liz Walley explain in her lecture on the 5th October 2010 the main pressures and drivers for change Welford, r; Gouldson, ap (1993) environmental management and business strategy
Section 2
Describes Climate change and the Evidence of damage to the earth??™s ecological infrastructure which described in the (???state of the world 1996,…1009, World watch Institute; The Millenium Assessment report 2005) work sheet.

Changes in temperature, sea level and Northern Hemisphere snow cover

Source defra 2010 Figure SPM.1. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All differences are relative to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c). {Figure 1.1}
Global and continental temperature change

Figure SPM.4. Comparison of observed continental- and global-scale changes in surface temperature with results simulated by climate models using either natural or both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal averages of observations are shown for the period 1906-2005 (black line) plotted against the centre of the decade and relative to the corresponding average for the period 1901-1950. Lines are dashed where spatial coverage is less than 50%. Blue shaded bands show the 5 to 95% range for 19 simulations from five climate models using only the natural forcings due to solar activity and volcanoes. Red shaded bands show the 5 to 95% range for 58 simulations from 14 climate models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings. {Figure 2.5}

Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970-2004

Figure SPM.2. Locations of significant changes in data series of physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground; hydrology; and coastal processes) and biological systems (terrestrial, marine and freshwater biological systems), are shown together with surface air temperature changes over the period 1970-2004. A subset of about 29,000 data series was selected from about 80,000 data series from 577 studies. These met the following criteria: (1) ending in 1990 or later; (2) spanning a period of at least 20 years; and (3) showing a significant change in either direction, as assessed in individual studies. These data series are from about 75 studies (of which about 70 are new since the TAR) and contain about 29,000 data series, of which about 28,000 are from European studies. White areas do not contain sufficient observational climate data to estimate a temperature trend. The 2 ? 2 boxes show the total number of data series with significant changes (top row) and the percentage of those consistent with warming (bottom row) for (i) continental regions: North America (NAM), Latin America (LA), Europe (EUR), Africa (AFR), Asia (AS), Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), and Polar Regions (PR) and (ii) global-scale: Terrestrial (TER), Marine and Freshwater (MFW), and Global (GLO). The numbers of studies from the seven regional boxes (NAM, EUR, AFR, AS, ANZ, PR) do not add up to the global (GLO) totals because numbers from regions except Polar do not include the numbers related to Marine and Freshwater (MFW) systems. Locations of large-area marine changes are not shown on the map. {Figure 1.2}
1. ^ Numbers in square brackets indicate a 90% uncertainty interval around a best estimate, i.e. there is an estimated 5% likelihood that the value could be above the range given in square brackets and 5% likelihood that the value could be below that range. Uncertainty intervals are not necessarily symmetric around the corresponding best estimate.
2. ^ Words in italics represent calibrated expressions of uncertainty and confidence. Relevant terms are explained in the Box ???Treatment of uncertainty??™ in the Introduction of this Synthesis Report.
3. ^ Excluding tsunamis, which are not due to climate change. Extreme high sea level depends on average sea level and on regional weather systems. It is defined here as the highest 1% of hourly values of observed sea level at a station for a given reference period.
4. ^ Based largely on data sets that cover the period since 1970.

Liz Walley explained in her lecture on the 5th October 2010 how Global warming was the most significant issue surrounding Climate change. Al Gor??™s film ???An Inconvenient Truth???. Evidence confirm that Co2 and HFCF gases are mainly man made Pachauri and Reisinger (2007)

The world can still reduce the harm to the Ecological Infrastructure if we act now. Eccleston. (2008) list ???the nine tipping elements and the time expected for them to undergo major transition??? they are:
1. Melting of Arctic sea-ice (approx 10 years)
2. Decay of the Greenland ice sheet (more than 300 years)
3. Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (more than 300 years)
4. Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (approx 100 years)
5. Increase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (approx 100 years)
6. Collapse of the Indian summer monsoon (approx 1 year)
7. Greening of the Sahara/Sahel and disruption of the West African monsoon (approx 10 years)
8. Dieback of the Amazon rainforest (approx 50 years)
9. Dieback of the Boreal Forest (approx 50 years)

This section focuses on Refrigeration the need to reduce HCFC.
Carbajal, Kanter (2009) reports ???The most frequently used HFCs in supermarket refrigeration are HFC 134a (3,830 times more powerful than CO2 over a 20-yearperiod) and HFC 404A (6,010 times more powerful than CO2 over the same period)???.
Forecast to 2015 how the different sector will contribute to global warming.

In this Section we show the growing Trend in Food Miles and the impact that they are having on climate change defra (2005)

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